Looking Down (But Looking Up)

I think Tim McGraw said it best, "I'm tired of lookin' left or right. So I'm just lookin' up." 

But boy is that hard to do some days. I personally have a lot of work ahead of me.

This Fourth of July was maybe a little bit different. I could get political, and someday I probably will. America sure doesn't feel so very free these days. And I often catch myself thinking about all the soldiers - boys really  - of wars past who died alone in their early twenties or late teens in a forest they had never been to, likely in the midst of a fear we cannot fathom, thinking of a mama or a best friend back home as they slipped from this life to the next... but they died for me. And for you. And for those who don't care about them whatsoever. For those who don't mind handing over their freedoms, handing over jobs to other countries, for those who don't care if they work hard or don't, someone else will do their bidding and paying... I'm getting carried away. 

This Fourth of July was just different. It's hard to know what America is when so many want to erase and change the story line of what America was - the good, the bad, or the ugly. The truth must always remain. So Tim, Jesus, and whoever else: I'm going to try my darndest to not look left or right this holiday weekend. I'm just going to look up.

But not at fireworks.

 We have learned over the past handful of years that our kids are not fans of anything loud and sudden. (Are any really?) So instead of dropping a couple hundred bucks on fireworks Allen would light alone in the driveway as we cried behind the windows at 7:24 PM, I decided to bow my head and succumb to my mantra these days of "this too shall pass."

But bowing my head would mean defeat. So I looked up from the Barbie covered playroom floor and saw the couch... the hide-a-bed couch a neighbor was throwing out a few years back. And in that moment of looking down, I looked up. And they had a sister night on the pull out couch bed all snuggled together story books and stuffed animals galore. (Heidi was just there for the start. Crib life is still for her, but it was sweet while it lasted.) They got to watch TV a little later than usual and we told them they could stay up and talk as long as they wanted. They had a great time.

In terms of lumber, I think this is the week we are looking down... and that means, things are looking up! Forecasters say it could be short lived, but it will be just as lumberyards like ours build supply. As the workforce gets back to it (for the love, please do not pray for anymore stimulus checks or "free money" - wait... there I go again... help me not look left or right... just help me look up...) but as the workforce comes back, even though there will be a demand, someone will be able to fulfill that demand with supply. My greatest concern right now is beyond the lumber market -- which Dunlaps is a very big part of too. The barns need metal and the houses need roofs and the additions need siding. And these supplies all need truckers all over this beautiful nation to make it happen. But I fear we are not through that thick forest yet, friends. We have a lot of suppliers that have the products we want and you need. But they don't have anyone to truck it or ship it. It's beyond frustrating. We also get so much product from China and other countries, it's terrifyingly obvious that the world knows and understands just how "under their thumb" we are. One of our bigger suppliers buys several shipping containers of nails and screws from overseas each year. The cost of metal went up some. Inflation, COVID, cost of living, whatever grand excuse you want to put on it: they went up. But that's not what made nails more than double in price. The cost of shipping alone went up over 90%. And when the containers arrived, there were no workers to unload the shipping containers. Why was there no one to unload the containers? You answer it. (Hint: I told you I don't want to go there again...)

Another thing I have my eye on carefully right now is America's paint supply. I don't know with certainty yet, but I think there could be a paint shortage in the late fall if (BIG IF) paint factories take another hit. Raw material to make paint (doesn't matter the brand - paint is all based in the same raw materials) is all based in Texas. When Texas froze in early 2021, so did the resins and raw materials. (Resin - like the plastic stuff that makes electrical boxes... have you priced one lately? They used to be 19 cents a box. Now they are closer to $1.00. Who cares, it's just a $1.00... right? But think about it. That thing you want to build... should cost you $19,000. Instead now it costs you.... are you good at math? Get the picture? Small moves are scary moves and predictors of the rest of the market. As Americans, we should all be well aware now more than ever how connected our system is.) 

But I digress. Back to paint.

In short, Texas froze. The plants with the resins froze. The bathrooms at the plant froze. The employees could not work there - nothing to make with ruined product and not great working conditions (let alone poor road conditions because Texas doesn't have a plethora of salt trucks nor does your average Texan probably have extensive knowledge driving in such conditions). The plumbers and electricians did not get to the factories in a timely fashion... several factors, but the resin needed clean-up and so did the pipes within the factories as well. And the longer the issue sat, the bigger they became. 

America will run on "pre-corona" paint until probably September. That's how much backstock we as a nation have. The paint factories are (to my knowledge) at it now and running full speed ahead to keep up with and recreate their awesome back stock they once had. I think they will probably fare well. However, could shipping play a factor? Could something else horrific happen? Could we outsource part of the process to another country and feel the affects years later? I don't know. But just know that 1.) I'll keep you posted and 2.) If you have been dying to get something painted, you may want to do it before this fall/winter as opposed to later.

Looking down still? Maybe. 

I hate that things are not 2019.

But when things are looking down, we have to look up. I often think that it is in our darkest hours that we seek Him. It shouldn't be, but if you are anything like me, sometimes that's how it goes. "God, I can't do this anymore. Everything is going wrong. What are You doing? Where are You?" 

Look up. Maybe you'll find the answers. Maybe you'll just take a long deep breath. And know you are alive. And you are here. You have a purpose. Maybe you'll look up and see that old pull-out couch bed and make the best of it.

This too shall pass. And we will watch fireworks again someday. 

Hang on, friends. And keep looking up.

Always with love,

Samantha