Five Market Updates You Didn't Know You Needed To Know

It's been a little while since my last post. 

I've been writing a lot, but haven't been posting them. Writing is so very good for my soul, and I love when people can relate or grasp something from my postings. But, as of late, my writing has been just that: my writings.

I'm going to try to make this relatively brief and discuss the building materials market in a short form... no real panic talk, pretty boring overall, but just to be honest with what we are seeing and what we believe (all according to our suppliers unless noted otherwise) what we may see in the near future.

1.) Silicone: Silicone is on the rise and is in more items than I care to think about. Those blue switch/electrical boxes, caulking, many sealants/sealers, furniture gliders, and the list goes on. AND ON. Silicon (the primary ingredient in silicone) is imported from China. China stopped production entirely for 2 months in 2021 and new shipping rates/tariffs have only made a real problem, a worse problem. Caulking is up over 20% and will take probably another 20% increase before summer.

Here's what I suggest: If you have a whole house/large project that require lots of electrical boxes or lots of caulking, buy now and buy at least 60-80% of what you think you'll need. Try not to get yourself in a bind and - if you can - PLAN AHEAD. This summer, especially with silicone products, you may not be able to go just anywhere and find THAT size electrical box or THAT brand of caulk. Sadly, it's not how this world is working right now.

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2.) Metal: Metal took a big price increase in 2021 overall, but we have seen a slight downturn in metal prices in the last 8-10 weeks. We believe it will get a little better in the spring, but are not sure what summer will bring. Lead times have not been bad on metal. The short of it, it's holding. And that's all we know.


Here's what I suggest: Get your plans ready (or stop by the store and have our guys go over your drawing and figure it for you) and be ready to order. Get your materials list all ready and when March comes and you're ready to build, be ready to build (and be billed) for the right price. I think best price will come in the spring and not hold for long.

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3.) Paint: Some interior canned lines of paint (including our line we carry at the store) appear to be discontinuing quarts of paint. We believe this is going to be a long term thing for some lines - meaning buying a quart of paint is not going to be an option - again, for SOME lines. Paint prices have risen some as supply is low, but not critically low. Spray paint has posed several issues because suppliers struggle to get cans or plastic caps/spray tips along with getting some colors. 



Here's what I suggest: In terms of spray paint, have a (singular) "stock" color on hand... a white, a black, and maybe another color. I wouldn't panic buy rattle cans. I would keep in mind that quarts of paint may be hard to find. If you need two quarts - for the most part - it will be about the same price as a gallon nearly anywhere you go. I wouldn't start ripping into wallpaper and gutting out a room without buying the paint first. Start with your materials and make sure you can find what you need. That doesn't only go for paint, but anything in the building material world at this time.

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4.) Lumber: Treated and regular is moving ever so slightly - in BOTH directions. The rises and falls are not crazy (no doubling overnight, and no bottom falling out). This price right now is likely the lowest price of 2022 although November or December maybe close to this. We expect prices from April - October (the prime building season in our region) to only rise. Our suppliers have all told us the same line: Expect volatility in '22. Lead times have not been horrific and we have not had too much PTS (priced time of shipment) orders. Plywood and OSB are stupid high and expected to climb all year.

Here's what I suggest: If you plan on building in 2022 and have the means of paying for your lumber package (or even just your unit of OSB you'll need for the subfloor) upfront, do it now. If you are still in the floor planning and dreaming stage with hope to build in 2023, get all the material LISTS (not prices) ready to go and try to pull the trigger at the end of 2022 when lumber prices *should* dip to their year low. If you have the ability to stockpile your large project or even just all your subfloor, it would be worth considering. 

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5.) Shingles: Shingles are still on allocation, which is something we really thought would have been lifted in late summer 2021, but here we are headed into spring of 2022 and still talking about it. Here's what it means: 

Stores like us are only allotted X amount of shingles for X amount of time. 

For easy math, let's say I can get 1 truckload of shingles each month and each truckload has 10 skids on it and each skid has 10 squares of shingles on it. 

Billy comes in and needs 40 square of Brownwood. We get it on order. (We have 4 skids full and 6 remaining)

Sally comes in and needs 30 square of Twilight Black. We get it on order. (We have 7.5 skids full and 2.5 remaining)

Mike comes in and needs 20 square of Onyx Black. We get it on order. (We have 9 skids full and 1 remaining)

Betty comes in and needs 30 square of Desert Tan. We get it on order, BUT have a full truck and can't get ALL of what Betty needs. So Betty will not be able to do here roof this month like she had planned but will have to wait for the next truck.

Now, keep in mind that this doesn't work exactly like this and we do have some colors in stock all the time. But you can hopefully understand and feel the frustration we all have. We want to buy Betty's shingles and we want Betty to get her roof done now too, but we cannot buy them right now. We hope allocation will end sooner rather than later, but are not sure. 

Here's what I would do: If you need a new roof this year, order your shingles now. The price is a steady climb, but not overly drastic and not what I would consider volatile. Get yours on order and know we can hold them here until your roofer picks them up when the weather changes. Order slightly heavy or ask your roofer to order slightly heavy. Why? 1.) You can always keep a square on hand if needed as the years go by and 2.) If you run 3 or 4 squares short, you may not get them in when you think. You might be Betty and between trucks. 3.) They are returnable, so no need to fuss about that being an issue.

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I'm surprised your eyelids are still open! Thanks for reading and following this crazy journey - of the building material world and just our own little Dunlap's world. If you ever need anything, we are always a phone call or visit away. We don't claim to have all the answers and I'll be the first to say that we don't have a crystal ball, but we are honest and work hard to earn your trust, business, and friendship should you choose us. 

Much love always,

Samantha




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